Markets7 min read·Updated 26 May 2026
Our 2026 outlook, and where last year’s call was wrong
Good research includes the misses. We review the assumptions that failed, what changed, and how that affects the rest of the year.
What surprised us
The path of rates and the resilience of household spending differed from our base case. Naming the miss is more useful than quietly moving the goalposts.
What changed in the model
We now place more weight on labor-market momentum, refinancing schedules and the lag between financial conditions and business investment.
How to use an outlook
Treat forecasts as scenarios, not promises. Build decisions that remain workable across more than one plausible rate and growth path.